{"id":139470,"date":"2023-11-22T19:42:27","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T19:42:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/?p=139470"},"modified":"2023-11-22T19:42:27","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T19:42:27","slug":"i-think-theyre-just-scared-statistician-explains-why-insurance-industry-wont-concede-covid-shots-may-be-to-blame-for-excess-deaths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/i-think-theyre-just-scared-statistician-explains-why-insurance-industry-wont-concede-covid-shots-may-be-to-blame-for-excess-deaths\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018I Think They\u2019re Just Scared\u2019: Statistician Explains Why Insurance Industry Won\u2019t Concede Covid Shots May Be to Blame for Excess Deaths"},"content":{"rendered":"

Texas-based statistician and finance specialist Mathew D. Crawford, who analyzes covid data on his Substack, joined \u201cThe Defender In-Depth<\/em>\u201d podcast for a deep dive into insurance industry data and concerns about the sharp increase in mortality rates for young adults and higher-than-normal excess deaths.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Data from the life insurance industry and from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that increases in mortality rates and excess deaths \u2014 which began with the onset of the covid pandemic \u2014 continue, and are expected to continue in the coming years.<\/p>\n

Crawford analyzed data indicating that despite insurance industry denials of a connection between the increased deaths and covid vaccines \u2014 which industry officials credit for reducing deaths \u2014 the most likely explanation for the sharp increases in mortality rates and excess deaths is the vaccines.<\/p>\n

Crawford said a common fallacy known as Simpson\u2019s paradox \u2014 akin to a statistical version of an optical illusion \u2014 can explain relatively lower death rates in more highly vaccinated U.S. states and counties, due to a near-perfect correlation with income and access to healthcare.<\/p>\n

Signs were there from 2021 \u2018but not many people were listening\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Crawford said the data indicate \u201can alarming increase in deaths among relatively young and working-aged people<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cObviously that\u2019s a concern, and it should have been a concern two years ago<\/em>,\u201d he said. \u201cWe could already begin to see it then, and those of us who were paying close attention did see it then. But not many people were listening<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead, when the Society of Actuaries released a report in 2022 indicating the sharp increase in deaths the year prior, what followed, according to Crawford, \u201cwas what just seemed like an obtuse intent to avoid discussion of the vaccines<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Healthy user bias\u2019 created false impression of covid vaccine efficacy<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to Crawford, what the CDC data show \u201cis that vaccine uptake pretty much follows a health-wealth curve<\/em>,\u201d which \u201cmatters in terms of how the actuaries might have been tricked<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, he said, \u201cI don\u2019t think that they really have been tricked. I think they\u2019re just scared to say what\u2019s going on<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Crawford said the data indicate a \u201chealthy user bias<\/em>,\u201d wherein \u201cwealth does predict health<\/em>\u201d and where \u201cwealthier counties have lower mortality rates<\/em>.\u201d Such correlations, according to Crawford, also existed pre-covid.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou can very clearly see that the death rate mirrors median household income across the entire country<\/em>,\u201d Crawford said. \u201cLooking at the most granular level of data from the CDC itself, the more wealth you have in a county, the less death you have in general<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Crawford said fatalities are more highly correlated with past death rates because \u201cin healthier counties, they\u2019re more conscientious and they tend to hold more college degrees and they generally have more wealth<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yet, actuaries came up with their own data, Crawford said, indicating \u201cvaccine effectiveness<\/em>\u201d on the basis that states with higher vaccination rates had lower mortality.<\/p>\n

For Crawford, there are a \u201ccouple of aspects wrong<\/em>\u201d with this conclusion \u2014 one being that in Northeastern states that were subsequently highly vaccinated, a disproportionately large number of covid deaths occurred early in the pandemic. As a result, there were fewer people who were \u201clow on health<\/em>\u201d later, when the vaccines were introduced.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven ignoring the fact that excess death gets redefined for a few states for that reason, what we have is a Simpson\u2019s paradox<\/em>\u201d situation, he said.<\/p>\n

What this is, according to Crawford, is a situation where \u201cthere is this other variable at play<\/em>.\u201d In the case of covid, this additional variable was \u201cgiving more vaccines to the people who are conscientious, who have more wealth, health and education<\/em>,\u201d which \u201cresults in a trend that goes in the opposite direction than what we would expect<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Crawford said the data \u201cthat would appear to indicate that there\u2019s small levels of [vaccine] effectiveness<\/em>\u201d instead indicate \u201cmedian household income effects<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe conclusion the actuaries make that the vaccines were stopping excess death is completely unwarranted, and they really should know better<\/em>,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019ve broken it down on a state level and on a county level, and I can see for absolute certain that the healthy user bias makes it look like there\u2019s a little bit of effectiveness. But there is none<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cWhen I see the Society of Actuaries coming forward and saying this, I think shenanigans. I think that that has to be a canned story<\/em>,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Citing existing data and insurance industry statements that indicate higher-than-average excess deaths are expected through 2026, Crawford said to blame excess deaths \u201con one variable [covid effects] rather than something that seems to be pushing that variable from behind, meaning the vaccines, it seems obtuse<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

yogaesoteric
\nNovember 22, 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Texas-based statistician and finance specialist Mathew D. Crawford, who analyzes covid data on his Substack, joined \u201cThe Defender In-Depth\u201d podcast for a deep dive into insurance industry data and concerns about the sharp increase in mortality rates for young adults and higher-than-normal excess deaths. Data from the life insurance industry and from the Centers for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1362],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-139470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19-crisis-1602-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139470","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139470"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139470\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":139474,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139470\/revisions\/139474"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=139470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=139470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}