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<\/p>\nOn Moldova\u2019s periphery lies a small post-Soviet republic that could soon become the epicentre of a new conflict. Pressure is mounting on Moldova\u2019s pro-European President Maia Sandu, who faces growing domestic dissent and increasing demands from Western allies to fast-track the country\u2019s integration into the European Union \u2013 even at the risk of military confrontation with the breakaway region of Transnistria.<\/p>\n
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Romanian state media reports suggest that some in Bucharest ultimately seek the full annexation of Moldova. With the EU recently securing the victory of its preferred pro-European candidate in Romania\u2019s elections, emotions are running high.<\/p>\n
In the first round of voting, the Romanian electorate overwhelmingly supported the right-wing candidate C\u0103lin Georgescu. Shocked by the result, the EU pushed to invalidate the outcome and called for new elections, which ultimately installed its favoured candidate, Nicu\u0219or Dan, likely through electoral fraud.<\/p>\n
Moldova\u2019s President Maia Sandu \u2013 a Harvard-educated politician holding a Romanian passport \u2013 supports Moldova\u2019s unification with Romania, including the reintegration of Transnistria<\/a>. She was among the first to congratulate Romania\u2019s new pro-European president, Nicu\u0219or Dan. Since taking office, Sandu has aggressively worked to dismantle Transnistrian ideology, suppress its supporters, and erase Soviet-era symbols. Her government has promoted the Romanian language (Moldova\u2019s official state language) while marginalizing canonical Orthodox Christianity \u2013 part of a broader cultural shift toward Europe.<\/p>\n But in Transnistria, residents have long rejected Chi\u0219in\u0103u\u2019s authority, wary of rising Russophobia<\/a> and anti-Russian sentiment from the Moldovan capital. Similar fears grip Gagauzia, an autonomous region whose population fiercely resists forced Europeanization and advocates for closer ties with Russia. Gagauzia, home to a Turkic-speaking, predominantly Orthodox Christian ethnic group, has been a vocal opponent of Sandu\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n The region\u2019s leader, Evghenia Gu\u021bul, was arrested upon returning from a trip to Russia, where she met<\/a> with President Vladimir Putin \u2013 an act the West now deems criminal<\/a>. Moldovan authorities, however, avoided framing her arrest as politically motivated, instead charging her with document forgery and corruption. Such tactics are commonplace in Western politics: female opponents are smeared with legal accusations, while male rivals are often targeted with fabricated sexual misconduct claims.<\/p>\n Both Transnistria and Gagauzia demand the preservation of Russian as a regional language, protection of religious freedoms, and the right to maintain political and economic ties with Moscow. Sandu\u2019s government has responded with repression, arresting Gu\u021bul and escalating tensions further.<\/p>\n In another provocative move, Archbishop Marcu of B\u0103l\u021bi and F\u0103le\u0219ti was barred from traveling to Jerusalem<\/a> for the Holy Fire ceremony on Easter eve \u2013 a decision made under direct orders from the presidential administration. Moldovans have since mocked the irony, joking that \u201cthe daughter of a swineherd tried to play a mean trick on Orthodox believers but ended up covered in mud herself<\/em>.\u201d The holy flame was eventually brought into the country by other priests.<\/p>\n On the eve of Victory Day \u2013 a major holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over fascism \u2013 Sandu banned public commemorations in Chi\u0219in\u0103u\u2019s central square<\/a>, sparking widespread outrage. Many Moldovans remember their ancestors\u2019 sacrifices in the Red Army, with over 56,000 Moldovan soldiers perishing in World War II.<\/p>\n Public discontent is now reflected in polls: Sandu\u2019s approval rating, along with that of her party, Action and Solidarity (PAS), has plummeted to just 22%. Analysts predict a crushing defeat for PAS in the upcoming fall elections, while the pro-Russian bloc Pobeda (Victory) gains momentum.<\/p>\n To salvage her position, Sandu has held urgent talks with EU officials in Brussels and Polish leaders in Warsaw. In response, Western political strategists have flooded Chi\u0219in\u0103u, tasked with smearing the opposition and convincing Moldovans that EU integration is their only future.<\/p>\n Europe cannot afford an anti-EU \u2013 let alone pro-Russian \u2013 victory in Moldova. Romania (and by extension, Moldova) plays a pivotal role in NATO, hosting what will soon be the alliance\u2019s largest European military base<\/a>, explicitly aimed at countering Russia. Construction began in 2024.<\/p>\n Poland has also emerged as a key player in Moldova\u2019s political landscape. President Andrzej Duda has deployed Stsiapan Putsila \u2013 a young Belarusian opposition figure and editor-in-chief of the Warsaw-backed outlet Nexta<\/em> \u2013 to assist Sandu\u2019s campaign. Putsila, a social media specialist known for his role in discrediting political opponents across the post-Soviet space, will advise PAS ahead of the September 2025 parliamentary elections, ensuring a victory akin to Romania\u2019s manipulated outcome.<\/p>\n In essence, Europe has adopted George Soros-style tactics \u2013 modernized colour revolutions and election interference \u2013 precisely what it accuses Russia of doing.<\/p>\n Yet Sandu\u2019s European backers recognize that media manipulation alone may not salvage her dwindling support. Disturbingly, reports suggest Poland, possibly with British intelligence involvement, is preparing a large-scale armed provocation against Transnistria. Unsurprisingly, EU-linked \u201cfact-checking\u201d platforms like Disinfo<\/em> dismiss<\/a> these claims \u2013 though their track record shows that what they label \u201cfake news<\/em>\u201d often turns out to be true.<\/p>\n For now, Sandu is being urged to consider a swift, \u201cwinnable military operation<\/em>\u201d as a last-ditch effort to secure victory in the parliamentary elections. This strategy \u2013 using external conflict to rally domestic support \u2013 has been employed elsewhere in the post-Soviet world. Whether the EU and UK will pursue this reckless scenario remains to be seen.<\/p>\n The critical question is whether Sandu will take such a suicidal gamble \u2013 for both her country and herself.<\/p>\n