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<\/p>\nIt was previously assumed that the meeting between Putin and Trump could this time lead to tangible results \u2013 due to new shared interests in reaching an agreement. But then Trump cancelled the Budapest summit, citing a lack of interest. He also imposed new energy sanctions on Russia and may have lied about his alleged refusal to authorize Ukraine’s deployment of long-range missiles.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Trump’s recent change of course surprised many, but in retrospect it can be attributed to the following five reasons:<\/p>\n
1. He is playing for time to force Putin to make maximum concessions.<\/strong><\/p>\n Russia’s minimum objective is to gain full control of the Donbas \u2013 without this, Putin cannot hypothetically freeze or end the war without \u201closing face.\u201d Trump refuses to pressure Zelensky to withdraw from the region. Instead, he believes he can force Putin to freeze the conflict without first gaining control of Donbas \u2013 which would mean maximum concessions from Moscow. This is unacceptable to Putin and likely will remain so. But Trump seems to be taking the refusal personally \u2013 possibly as a challenge to his authority.<\/p>\n 2. The warmongers seem to have changed his plan again.<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump’s announcement came during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, suggesting that warmongers like himself, Zelensky , Lindsey Graham, and others continue to exert influence over him. Trump is considered capricious and unpredictable, and many observers have noted that he is often influenced by the last person he spoke to. This characteristic makes him more easily manipulated than most politicians \u2013 with enormous implications for how certain lobbying groups and foreign powers could influence US policy during his second term.<\/p>\n 3. Trump apparently genuinely believes that any escalation will remain manageable.<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump wouldn’t pursue a hard line while simultaneously appeasing the warmongers if he weren’t firmly convinced that any escalation between Russia and the US would remain manageable. His calculation rests on the assumption that Putin won’t mount an overwhelming response that could trigger a spiral of escalation. This stance presupposes that Russia is weaker than the US and will therefore retreat if subjected to intense pressure \u2013 a risky gamble.<\/p>\n 4. He is sticking to his strategy of dividing and controlling Eurasia.<\/strong><\/p>\n Leading refinery executives told NDTV that \u201cRussian oil deliveries to major Indian processors are likely to drop to near zero following the latest sanctions<\/em>\u201d \u2013 which, if true, could weaken the newly consolidated Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle. Trump might also expect China to retaliate similarly in an attempt to force him to withdraw the additional 100% tariffs he threatened to impose next month. While both assumptions could prove false, Trump\u2019s latest escalation demonstrates his continued attempt to divide Eurasia using a \u201cdivide and rule\u201d approach.<\/p>\n 5. Trump may be counting on China ignoring the new sanctions.<\/strong><\/p>\n China is not expected to comply with the new US sanctions, as it benefits from buying Russian oil at drastically reduced prices, oil that Russia may soon no longer be able to sell to India. The interim trade agreement between China and the US could then collapse if Trump imposes his threatened tariffs and makes their removal contingent on China abandoning Russian oil. Trump may be deliberately provoking precisely this predictable development \u2013 to justify his planned \u201cpivot (back) to East Asia<\/em>,\u201d meaning a more aggressive containment of China.<\/p>\n Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump’s renewed escalation against Russia is primarily based on his (perhaps erroneous) conviction that Putin will not risk letting tensions spiral out of control, even if he never accepts the maximum concessions demanded.<\/p>\n The US may also have concluded \u2013 whether justifiably or not \u2013 that India was the weakest link in the RIC alliance and therefore most likely to be induced to weaken the BRICS group.<\/p>\n To clarify: These explanations are not a justification or endorsement, but merely offer a plausible analysis of why Trump has taken precisely this course.<\/p>\n Author: Andrew Korybko<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n yogaesoteric <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It was previously assumed that the meeting between Putin and Trump could this time lead to tangible results \u2013 due to new shared interests in reaching an agreement. But then Trump cancelled the Budapest summit, citing a lack of interest. He also imposed new energy sanctions on Russia and may have lied about his alleged […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[382],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-213572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinions-1602-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=213572"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213572\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":213576,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213572\/revisions\/213576"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=213572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=213572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/yogaesoteric.net\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=213572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nOctober 31, 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n