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<\/p>\nNegotiations on the European Commission’s next seven-year budget are entering their decisive phase. Should Ursula von der Leyen and her allies succeed with their plans, Germany will once again have to shoulder a considerable financial burden. However, the Germans have now grown accustomed to this reality.<\/p>\n
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Globally, government debt is approaching dangerous flood levels. The world economy is practically drowning in debt, with total public liabilities now exceeding 95% of global GDP. It is therefore only a matter of time before the bond markets put an end to this debt binge and drive interest rates \u2013 and with them, the cost of debt servicing \u2013 to levels that governments can no longer afford. Such a reckoning would simply be the logical consequence of political irresponsibility, contempt for taxpayers, and the megalomania of a political culture that continues to expand the state on top of an ever-growing mountain of debt.<\/p>\n
A four-decade-long bull market for government bonds, characterized by steadily falling yields, came to an end about four years ago. Since then, interest rates have been rising as investors gradually lose confidence in both the policies of Western governments and the relentless expansion of the bureaucratic state. A turning point is approaching. Fiscal discipline is at the threshold of an era marked by political waste.<\/p>\n
For politicians like Ursula von der Leyen, however, austerity measures would amount to an admission that decades of debt-financed state expansion have led to a dead end. Hardly anything is more alien to modern political elites than admitting failure. This is especially true in Brussels, where the bureaucratic establishment and the ideological foundations of the European project remain firmly convinced that they are building a supranational European state on the right side of history.<\/p>\n
It is not surprising that there is no talk of austerity measures in Brussels.<\/p>\n
Instead, negotiations are currently underway on the next seven-year EU budget. The European Commission has proposed a financial framework worth approximately \u20ac2 trillion. The financing of military spending related to Ukraine, the comprehensive European rearmament program, and the enormous subsidy package supporting the Green Deal is to be achieved through increased contributions from member states and newly issued joint debt. In this way, Brussels continues to strengthen both its political authority and its influence over national governments.<\/p>\n
Germany currently finances around a quarter of the EU budget. Under the proposed framework, German taxpayers would ultimately contribute around \u20ac500 billion over the entire budget period. Last year alone, Germany paid approximately \u20ac30 billion into the EU budget, while receiving around \u20ac13 billion back \u2013 primarily in the form of agricultural subsidies and the ever-expanding subsidy system that supports Europe’s green industrial policy and its interventionist economic model.<\/p>\n
But even a budget of 2 trillion euros \u2013 which, given the severe economic damage caused by years of excessive European regulation, already represents a leap into budgetary fantasy \u2013 is apparently no longer enough for Brussels.<\/p>\n
Discussions are currently underway about increasing the budget by a further 200 billion euros.<\/p>\n
At the forefront of these efforts, unsurprisingly, is the European Commission itself: an insatiable bureaucracy tirelessly working to tap into independent sources of tax revenue. Customs duties, emissions trading revenue, plastics taxes \u2013 Brussels’ imagination seems boundless. At the same time, direct financial demands on member states almost automatically continue to increase, with ever-higher budget contributions being treated as political routine despite growing conservative resistance across Europe.<\/p>\n
Should the von der Leyen Commission succeed in making this fiscal policy leap, Germany’s annual contribution to financing the European project would rise from around 30 billion euros today to approximately 78.6 billion euros.<\/p>\n
The consequences for taxpayers are profound. An entirely new level of government \u2013 complete with its own bureaucracy and increasingly its own taxing powers \u2013 has gradually placed itself above existing national institutions. Since the joint borrowing during the pandemic and the issuance of the massive NextGenerationEU bonds, Brussels has steadily transformed itself into an independent borrower on international capital markets.<\/p>\n
Officially, the German government continues to reject granting the European Commission broader tax powers and opposes a drastic increase in the EU budget. However, all indications suggest that Berlin will ultimately shift the financial burden to Brussels itself, thus paving the way for more extensive joint bond issuances \u2013 or a comparable mechanism \u2013 to finance the growing central apparatus.<\/p>\n
Repayment of the \u20ac750 billion NextGenerationEU debt will begin in 2028. These liabilities, spread over the following years, should ultimately be repaid to investors. Since these funds are simply not available, European capitals will almost certainly reach the same conclusion: to refinance the liabilities through continuous new bond issuances, thereby effectively burying what little remains of the original prohibition on joint sovereign debt in the European Union.<\/p>\n
In many respects, the restructuring of the European financial system resembles a financial evolution towards a European superstate. Ultimately, joint liability for Brussels’ debts appears practically unavoidable. The political and institutional way back is largely blocked.<\/p>\n
For German taxpayers, this strategy amounts to little more than witnessing yet another familiar fiscal shell game.<\/p>\n
Brussels will almost certainly continue to tap into new sources of revenue through tariffs, emissions trading, plastic taxes, and whatever additional levies policymakers may come up with.<\/p>\n
The remaining financing gap will inevitably be covered by Eurobonds issued on the capital markets.<\/p>\n
Such measures carry significant inflation risks, as additional government debt expands the money supply and exerts upward pressure on prices. At the same time, government debt increasingly crowds out private investment from credit markets, driving up financing costs for productive businesses and simultaneously strengthening the role of the public sector.<\/p>\n
The consequences are already becoming apparent. Europe’s downward spiral of declining prosperity is accelerating. It is a tragic process of economic decay \u2013 one that will increasingly likely culminate in a severe sovereign debt crisis.<\/p>\n
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\nJuly 7, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n