Five reasons why Trump is again escalating against Russia
It was previously assumed that the meeting between Putin and Trump could this time lead to tangible results – due to new shared interests in reaching an agreement. But then Trump cancelled the Budapest summit, citing a lack of interest. He also imposed new energy sanctions on Russia and may have lied about his alleged refusal to authorize Ukraine’s deployment of long-range missiles.
Trump’s recent change of course surprised many, but in retrospect it can be attributed to the following five reasons:
1. He is playing for time to force Putin to make maximum concessions.
Russia’s minimum objective is to gain full control of the Donbas – without this, Putin cannot hypothetically freeze or end the war without “losing face.” Trump refuses to pressure Zelensky to withdraw from the region. Instead, he believes he can force Putin to freeze the conflict without first gaining control of Donbas – which would mean maximum concessions from Moscow. This is unacceptable to Putin and likely will remain so. But Trump seems to be taking the refusal personally – possibly as a challenge to his authority.
2. The warmongers seem to have changed his plan again.
Trump’s announcement came during a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, suggesting that warmongers like himself, Zelensky , Lindsey Graham, and others continue to exert influence over him. Trump is considered capricious and unpredictable, and many observers have noted that he is often influenced by the last person he spoke to. This characteristic makes him more easily manipulated than most politicians – with enormous implications for how certain lobbying groups and foreign powers could influence US policy during his second term.
3. Trump apparently genuinely believes that any escalation will remain manageable.
Trump wouldn’t pursue a hard line while simultaneously appeasing the warmongers if he weren’t firmly convinced that any escalation between Russia and the US would remain manageable. His calculation rests on the assumption that Putin won’t mount an overwhelming response that could trigger a spiral of escalation. This stance presupposes that Russia is weaker than the US and will therefore retreat if subjected to intense pressure – a risky gamble.
4. He is sticking to his strategy of dividing and controlling Eurasia.
Leading refinery executives told NDTV that “Russian oil deliveries to major Indian processors are likely to drop to near zero following the latest sanctions” – which, if true, could weaken the newly consolidated Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle. Trump might also expect China to retaliate similarly in an attempt to force him to withdraw the additional 100% tariffs he threatened to impose next month. While both assumptions could prove false, Trump’s latest escalation demonstrates his continued attempt to divide Eurasia using a “divide and rule” approach.
5. Trump may be counting on China ignoring the new sanctions.
China is not expected to comply with the new US sanctions, as it benefits from buying Russian oil at drastically reduced prices, oil that Russia may soon no longer be able to sell to India. The interim trade agreement between China and the US could then collapse if Trump imposes his threatened tariffs and makes their removal contingent on China abandoning Russian oil. Trump may be deliberately provoking precisely this predictable development – to justify his planned “pivot (back) to East Asia,” meaning a more aggressive containment of China.
Conclusion
Trump’s renewed escalation against Russia is primarily based on his (perhaps erroneous) conviction that Putin will not risk letting tensions spiral out of control, even if he never accepts the maximum concessions demanded.
The US may also have concluded – whether justifiably or not – that India was the weakest link in the RIC alliance and therefore most likely to be induced to weaken the BRICS group.
To clarify: These explanations are not a justification or endorsement, but merely offer a plausible analysis of why Trump has taken precisely this course.
Author: Andrew Korybko
yogaesoteric
October 31, 2025