New Steps to the Arctic War

The Northern Corridor project, promoted by Russia and China, has revived interest in the Arctic and the poles and prompted newly elected US President Trump to immediately take up the issue.

As 2024 progressed, the race for the northern routes intensified. The Northern Corridor project promoted by Russia and China revived interest in the Arctic and the poles, prompting the newly elected US President Trump to immediately address the issue. Let’s pursue to understand the reasons for a possible “Arctic War”.

A look to the north

Little thought is ever given to the infamous North. We are used to looking at the world map from the side of the equator, but if we try to look “from above” by placing the pole in the middle, the spatial view of the Earth’s geography allows us to consider completely different aspects.

The Arctic as a macroregion covers about 14 million square kilometers and contains previously uncalculated reserves of hydrocarbons, precious metals and rare earths.

Competition among Arctic powers is exacerbated by overlapping territorial claims on the seabed. Article 76 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) allows states to extend their continental shelves, but claims often overlap, as in the case of the North Pole, which Russia, Denmark and Canada claim. Russia in particular has increased its military presence in the Arctic, reopening Cold War bases and developing advanced naval and missile capabilities.

The United States, initially less active, has recently increased its strategic engagement in the area, seeing Russia and China – the latter a self-described “largely Arctic nation” – as challengers for control of resources and routes. Although China does not border the Arctic, it has invested in the “Polar Silk Road” and promoted infrastructural and scientific cooperation with Arctic countries.

In this terra incognita, Greenland, the world’s largest island, lies in the North Atlantic and on the Arctic Circle, halfway between North America and Europe. About 80% of the island’s surface is covered by an ice sheet, the second largest after Antarctica. This ice sheet, which reaches a thickness of more than 3,000 meters, is one of the most important freshwater reserves on Earth. The rest of the territory consists of ice-free coastal areas with spectacular tundras and fjords. There is also a central glacial plateau surrounded by coastal mountains with peaks over 3,700 meters high, such as Mount Gunnbjørn, the highest point on the island. The deep fjords are home to active glaciers that help icebergs flow into the sea. Climatically speaking… it’s cold!

American claim to Greenland

Greenland is the world’s largest island, representing 22% of the territory of the United States, that is, the area of Italy, France, Spain, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom combined, with a population of only 60,000 people. It is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, but has extensive autonomous powers.

According to a report by the US Geological Survey, 13% of the world’s oil and 30% of its natural gas reserves, as well as gold, rubies, diamonds, zinc, iron, copper, rare earths and much uranium are located underground (between the land and the seabed), with a total estimated value of around USD 400 billion, equivalent to Denmark’s annual GDP.

Trump already hinted at a gold rush in the region in the summer of 2019, but there is much more: huge reserves of oil, gas, palladium, nickel, phosphate, bauxite, uranium, rare earths and more.

There are already several secret American military bases there, except for the well-known base in Pituffik, which is the center of the entire NORAD space protection network. There is no doubt that the main strategic weight of the icy island is geostrategic, as it is part of the North Pole and controls access to the pole for the entire Southwest. On the other hand, the United States is considered a polar nation only for part (north) of Alaska, which was once Russian land purchased by the Americans.

For the North Pole, which borders Siberia, the Chinese are planning their Polar Silk Road, a strategic alternative to bypass the Southeast Asian straits (then Bab el-Mandeb, Red Sea, Suez) and to shorten the crossing time to Europe.

The Danes, who are very ecological and pacifist, will face a serious image problem: if the permits to exploit the area’s resources are granted, the situation will change radically and Denmark will become a leader in the nuclear market. For Greenland, on the other hand, the goal is much bigger: in addition to uranium, the melting of glaciers is revealing other underground treasures that are tempting the rare earth giants and strategic industries. All to the detriment of local communities and their way of life, but that doesn’t really matter to the market powers.

There are no small diplomatic advantages for Trump’s America: the Arctic Council, founded in 1991, now includes NATO member states (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the United States), with the exception of Russia, which, although a prominent member, is the subject of armed conflict and is kept on the sidelines at the decision-making level.

The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO was an important step towards securing the Arctic war. With Finland in particular and secondarily with Sweden, one of the most important Russian bases in the Arctic, the Kola Peninsula, is directly threatened. With around 40 ships, the Russians have the largest icebreaker fleet in the world and their presence at the pole is well organized and is constantly being strengthened.

Recently, Trump revived the idea of buying the island, an idea that the Americans have been pursuing since 1867 and that Trump himself had put on the table during his first presidency. He then transferred it to Ken Howery, the ambassador to Sweden, who apparently, with interesting and convincing arguments, forced Stockholm to renounce the neutrality that had existed for about two centuries.

It’s strange that Howery, the young global head of the World Economic Forum, was one of the founders of PayPal and is part of the PayPal mafia that includes Thiel, Musk, Nosek and Levchin. Musk and Howery “magically” find themselves together. What a strange “coincidence”.

The presidential entourage is interested in the northern part of the “Green Land” in the middle of the ice – while the population lives almost exclusively in the south. The Inuit are the population with the highest suicide rate in the world: drowning them in dollars won’t make them happy, but maybe it will help. Whether it’s a sectoral purchase, a long-term lease, building permits and mining concessions – or perhaps a political coup within the Danish government – the US is ready to play its game.

yogaesoteric
January 15, 2025