Iran War Until 2029? Vance, Rubio Privately Warn Trump It Could Drag Through End of His Term

President Trump recently told reporters to expect more US attacks on Iranian tankers, as the war over the Hormuz Strait continues to escalate in piecemeal tit-for-tat fashion.

“The attacks are made by us. We’ve knocked out nine of their ships. I would say that the attacks are caused by us, and you’re going to see a lot more,” the president told reporters, adding that many of the Iranian tankers are “donezo” – as global oil prices continue to climb.

The region has now seen over six months of war since US and Israel launched an operation that White House officials at first suggested would just last for “days” – and then insisted (repeatedly) would be a “four to six weeks” campaign.

All along the White House has kept moving the goal posts, amid lack of overall strategic vision and failure to articulate what exactly enough of a “victory” to establish a military exit would look like.

Speaking of drastically moving the goal post, the below was another key media exchange with Trump:

Reporter: Do you expect negotiations with Iran to restart at some point?

Trump: Uhhhhhh……. we’re not looking for it, to be honest with you. This war will end immediately after our election.

This as The Wall Street Journal has issued a report saying Trump’s top advisors are now warning him that the Iran conflict could last through the rest of his term.

Trump has called it “small potatoes” – but he may now have his very own forever war:

“Top White House advisers have raised privately with President Trump the prospect that the Iran war could drag on through the remainder of his term, U.S. officials said, a message at odds with Trump’s public assurances of a swift victory.

In the Oval Office and Situation Room, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have discussed with the president that Tehran could continue to resist U.S. pressure under the blockade and other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029, the officials said.”

According to more snippets from the WSJ report:

“The closed-door discussions come as Trump told reporters that the war will end ‘immediately’ after the midterm elections in November ‘because they [Iranians] can’t hold out any longer.’ 

…….Trump often speaks privately with aides of his desire for a quick resolution to the war, which is in its seventh month and has killed 18 US servicemembers, the officials said. But Trump also supports a long-term economic siege, using a naval blockade and sanctions in a bid to force the regime to dismantle its nuclear program. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has portrayed the new strategy – dubbed ‘Operation Economic Outcast’ – as an alternative to major combat operations.”

Iran has been touting that it is ready to endure and survive at any cost while vowing “disproportionate” responses to any military aggression from the United States.

IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated, “We have reached a point where if the enemy strikes at 2 or 3 of our targets, we will respond forcefully by striking at 20.”

Back in mid-March, at a moment Trump officials were still claiming Operation Epic Fury would be swift and effective, US intelligence at the time assessed that “Iran’s leadership and government are largely in tact and the system does not risk collapse.”

And now, half a year into the war, the exact same can be said. Even the establishment CFR’s Foreign Affairs makes the case for a conservative realism contra Bessent’s forecasts in Why America Can’t Strangle Iran:

“But even as the country’s economic situation is getting worse, Iran’s leadership remains better able to resist the coercive effects of sanctions than it might appear. The state of the economy is not yet impinging on Iran’s ability to wage war. Stockpiles of various goods remain deep, due to years of sanctions experience. And the Iranian state, with its powerful repressive tools, has figured out how to offload much of the economic pain onto ordinary Iranians while making sure its own needs are met. Trump’s approach, in other words, can certainly immiserate most of the country’s people. But it cannot successfully strangle the Islamic Republic itself.”

One pundit has accurately described the state of play which defines Iran’s existential survival posture, pointing out: “Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to modify the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore.” So “winning” for Iran looks much different, compared to US objectives.

Anyone have an update on this? https://t.co/frT8CSRcN2

— Ron Shillman (@shillman1) September 9, 2026

But at a moment that Iran’s ballistic missile capability is still obviously very much intact – given that recently US bases in Jordan were targeted in a huge volley – White House official statements have a Baghdad Bob flavour to them.

“President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions,” White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said. “Only President Trump knows what he will do and when.”

 

yogaesoteric
September 13, 2026