“We shouldn’t have done that”: Thiel breaks with Trump over the Iran war and warns that America may not have “hard power”
Peter Thiel, the co-founder of PayPal and Palantir (PLTR), who in 2016 was the first major technology investor to back Trump and the biggest funder of the Super PACs behind JD Vance’s 2022 Senate campaign, has now drawn a clear line on Trump’s crucial foreign policy gamble.
In a recording of a private lecture on October 12 in Nashville, which is available to Politico (Calder McHugh), Thiel said to the audience:
“I am sceptical about [the war]; I think we shouldn’t have done it. Many mistakes were made.”
“Perhaps we lack hard power. Perhaps we are losing the war for soft power.”
In other words, one of the architects of the MAGA-Tech alliance now considers the war a mistake and believes America may not be strong enough to see it through. The statements spread overnight.
🚨 Peter Thiel, one of Trump’s most influential billionaire backers, says the Iran war was a MISTAKE
“I think we should not have done it. There were a lot of mistakes that were made.”
Thiel made the comments last week during a private lecture in Nashville.
He also raised the question no one in the GOP wants to answer <2 weeks before the midterms:
“Maybe we don’t have the hard power. Maybe we’re going to lose the soft power war.”
Thiel co-founded PayPal and Palantir, donated $1.25 million to Trump’s 2016 campaign, was a key WH advisor during Term I, and poured millions into JD Vance’s Senate primary that put him on the path to VP.
His data company Palantir is actively assisting Trump’s deportation operations today.
He still supports Trump. But his assessment of the Iran war is damning.
When a donor this close starts saying “we should not have done it,” you can bet the White House is listening.
Source: Daily Mail, Politico / Writer: Michael
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 22, 2026
Thiel on the Iran war: “I think we should not have done it”
— Alex Burns (@alexanderburns) October 22, 2026
Below we will discuss what Thiel said, the even stranger parts of the speech, and why this comes at the worst possible time for the White House.
“The Sword of Damocles”
According to Politico, Thiel devoted a large part of his speech to what he considered the unchecked power of the International Criminal Court, referring to Rumsfeld and Cheney, and then said the following:
“I understand the Cheney family’s Trump derangement syndrome as an attempt to curry favour with the [International Criminal Court] and avoid prosecution. Probably too late….… And I’ve come to suspect that the threat of an ICC arrest warrant hangs like a sword of Damocles over the Trump administration as it tries to wage this war in Iran.”
In other words: One of the president’s most intellectual supporters is publicly speculating that Trump’s representatives could face war crimes charges. Very reassuring.
Thiel also recounted a meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu in early 2024, after October 7th, during which he inquired about Israel’s plans for Gaza. According to Thiel, Netanyahu replied, “I can’t just turn it into Dresden,” an allusion to the Allied bombing of Dresden, which killed approximately 25,000 people.
Still on Team Trump (so to speak)
To be fair, Thiel didn’t defect. According to Politico, he “reaffirmed his continued support for Trump and indicated he wanted to protect the president,” framing his criticism as opposition to neoconservatives and wars in the Middle East, not as criticism of Trump personally. That’s the argument of the Vance wing, and Politico reported back in March that Vance himself had been “sceptical” about attacking Iran before the war began. Neither Thiel’s representatives nor the White House responded to Politico. In other words, here’s the more reserved wing of the coalition saying in private what he can’t say from the podium, and the recording was released twelve days before the November 3 midterm elections.
yogaesoteric
October 31, 2026